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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd