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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers rising collectively. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still